Many out there are shouting “the world is ending” from street preachers to the IPCC, all with their visions of doom. To some extent I think they are right, we are in the end times but I can’t help but wonder just exactly whose time is at an end.
I am going to give my most realistic prediction with time frames for what I think is most likely to happen in the UK by 2050. Note: This is based on current knowledge and logical trajectory. I am not making predictions for any other country, but I would be not surprised if the Rest of the West didn’t follow a similar path on a similar timeline. That being said, nothing is certain until it happens, I could be out by a decade or two, or something unexpected happens.
I will rank these on a scale of 1 to 3: 1, being almost unavoidable, 2, being highly likely but not guaranteed and 3 being likely but quite avoidable.
2023-2030:
The rise of ESG and ‘B-corps’ in business and culture: 1
Despite all its negatives and the growing backlash against it, I see more and more businesses adopting ESG models, with companies willing to adopt them at first but as more investors and banks get on board we will see companies having to adopt it or lose investment funding or being fined by various Governments until only those who are ESG compliant will remain, which will be few and large.Climate propaganda goes into overdrive: 1
Despite the more level-headed climate scientists’ and energy experts’ efforts, climate scaremongering will go into overdrive. It will turn out the same type of scary, altruistic and emotionalist propaganda that made Covid Lockdowns so effective. It will be everywhere and it will be unmissable.
Climate lockdowns and attempts at ‘15 min cities’: 1
No doubt after the success of Covid Lockdowns there will be attempts at climate lockdowns in one form or another, from trials of ‘15 min cities’, decreasing speed limits to make driving less practical, to even outright climate lockdowns. These and many others will be attempted to see how effective they are or rather, how much people are willing to put up with them.
The First Blackouts: 2
As Solar and Wind are implemented and Fossil fuels are removed, I can see the Government start to use strategic blackouts to save energy and limit fossil fuel use during the phase-out, but this will not stop unplanned blackouts either because solar and wind can not produce enough power or are producing so much that they threaten to blow the system if not switched off.
Noticeable decrease in personal freedoms: 1
As the country gets more collectivistic more laws will be past that and come into force that will start to limit what people can do, where they can go and who they can meet. This will be the first time the general population will notice the decrease, even if they don’t find them offensive, and may even support some depending on how they’re sold.
Crackdown on Crypto and other forms of none Fiat currency: 2
As the saying goes, Money is power, and frankly, governments want it all. All forms of none central bank fiat will be discouraged or made outright illegal as governments and those who work with them tighten their grip on funds. As well as replacing it with their currencies which they can manipulate until their heart’s content.
2025-2030:
2025: Labour party landside: 2
As the Conservative party (Tory) continues to make itself look less attractive, Labour will increase its popularity and will win back most of the red wall as well as other voters. there will be celebrations. However, people will quickly find that while some problems may get ‘resolved’, very little has changed except living standards will drop even faster and that all Labour has done is pressed down on the Accelerator.
The End of the NHS: 1
Regardless of which Party is in power, The NHS will either collapse or be dissolved. This is because no amount of borrowing or Taxation can cover its costs. This is due to a shrinking economy, low birth rate and the start of the great brain drain. If however it still somehow stays alive, every service it offers will get worst, wait times will be longer and care provided will plummet if severe restrictions are not placed on it, with more and more people having to turn to private medical services, one way or the other.
The Beginning of the great brain drain: 3
Anybody with any sense or money will look to relocate at an ever faster pace as the UK’s economy starts to falter and the full impact of Covid lockdowns as well as Brexit will come into force. Employers will find it increasingly more difficult to hire competent staff, either because they have left the country or are simply not willing to work for businesses under an ever-increasing bad deal. If you want to know what this looks like, Read Atlas Shrugged.
The late 2020s: Only ESG investors/banks remain: 2
For one reason or another, investment in all but ESG-approved projects will dry up completely, either because they are just a bad investment or Only ESG investors will be allowed to fund them. Innovation will all but stop and the Government backed ESG plays will hold all the cards including Money. Either you accept their terms or you will not be legally allowed to operate.
Rampant Collectivism: 2
As the country fragments and D.I.E. takes hold over the Culture, all forms of Collectivism and tribalism will increase exponentially. Sexism, racism, homo/heterophobia as well as nationalism and many other forms of Tribalism will rise, ever fragmenting the country and pitting people against each other. It would not be surprising to see different Races fighting in the streets and act of terrorism increase. The rapid increase of neo-nazi style racism would be ever more visible.
Restriction on Personal freedom began to bite: 2
What started as ‘reasonable’ restrictions in the eyes of the general public will now begin to bite as everything is monitored, tracked and restricted. Life will begin to get noticeably harder and more bureaucratic, with limits placed on everything. Society will rapidly move from a ‘free’ society to a Permission Society where you will need government permission to do almost anything.
The rise of the black market: 1
As more and more things are controlled by the government, the larger and more influential the black markets will become. Not needing government money which will be fully trackable and easily manipulated, these Black markets will take a new form of Money, where it’s a new form of crypto or even gold. Anything which is limited by the government will become available there and it will be everywhere.
Common Food shortages: 2
Due to divestment in Fossil Fuels, we will no longer be able to produce food on the scale required to keep up with food demains. it may even be the case where we can not even import enough. WW2-style Rationing may even come into effect.
2030 -2035
The beginning of the end of the Welfare state: 2
Regardless of which Party is in power, you will start to see the welfare State like the NHS start to falter as it falls to the same forces crushing the NHS, and will most likely suffer a similar fate.
Brain Drain impacts: 1
The full impact of the Brain drain will become apparent as talent has left the country and both the government and private sector start to struggle to hang on to competent staff and will struggle to stay afloat. Even those who seem strong at the beginning of the decade may not see it out. Some small businesses may survive if they are ‘one man bands’ but only the really big or small may stand a chance.
Common blackouts (early 2030’s): 2
Blackouts will become all too common as not enough Nuclear will be built in time or will be cancelled depending on who is in power. Regardless, the ever-increasing reliance on Solar and Wind will make energy unpredictable and expensive.
Frequent Failures and delays: 1
As the impacts begin to compound, things are going to start failing, often, at first, they will be nuances but then more and more key infrastructures will start failing due to lack of maintenance or nobody knows how to do it, people are going to start dying in what where once completely preventable situations. Every other day will be something horrific and the government will put in more regulations which will only increase these incidents. (this is a topic for another time).Raise of a ‘Britain first’ Party?: 3
Despite all the early attempts of a white nationalist party in Britain, the amount of collectivism and tribalism will get to the point where is not unrealistic to see a white nationalist party come from almost nowhere and be influential as they would be ‘different’ from all the parties. I would not be surprised if it was not too different from Norsefire from V for Vendetta. However, I don’t think this would be when they would take office but they would be almost there.ESG Businesses start to go under: 3
Despite all the compliance and investment, even the biggest ESG businesses will start to struggle with many complaints of smaller businesses finding their adoption of ESG was only a stay of execution as they go bankrupt and even the investors and government can not keep them afloat.
2035-2050
Economic then Societal collapse: Economic 1 Societal 2
Due to the spending in the early to mid-2020s and the increasing presence of ESG and its economic throttling effects and compounded effects of Low birth rates, Brain drain and ever-higher tax burdens on all, this is when it will all collapse All wealth which is not stored in Gold or other achieved and time tested stores of wealth will be wiped out in days if not hours. All government services will quickly cease and many will be thrown into poverty. Civil unrest will be all but inevitable. This may also trigger the collapse of multiple other nations as well but not all as some nations will have seen this coming and start to decouple their economies to limit the damage.
Civil unrest: 2
If it had not been earlier, this is the decade there will be protests in the streets and things go from bad to worse, what was taken for granted in the 2020s will be luxuries in the 2030s. Whoever is in power at the time will have a very angry remaining population where there will be one event that act as the spark (think of the killed girl by a ‘finger men’ in ‘V for Vendetta’. This is most likely in 2035-2039. Whoever is in power will be removed one way or another.
The New Order: 2
After the collapse and depending on how big it is, this is the time that the party would raise to power. Britain will be authoritarian led by a strongman, who will inevitably push whatever authoritarian ideology they have on everybody, it will be religiously based and will curtail many freedoms. Women will most likely be forced back into second-class status again and minorities will be oppressed. Depending on which groups were blamed for the collapse, they most likely be rounded up and shot, and if history tells us anything, Jews will be one of them. For a while, they may be a dictatorship, and the monarchy will unlikely survive, even if the Royal family does.
Rebuild and return to Fossil Fuels: 3
Regardless of what the science may or may not say, the UK will start to rapidly rebuild coal, oil and gas plants as it rebuilds the infrastructure of civilisation due to the failed promise of Wind and Solar. Nuclear and Hydro will also be considered but will come later as cheap energy is needed and the environment will once again not even be considered. The UK will restart manufacturing at home and reindustrialise.
Some may ask, what about the effects of Climate change, will they not have an impact?
To that I say, Climate change will be the least of our problems even at its most severe it will not do anywhere near the damage that our current steps towards ‘preventing it’ i.e. the rapid elimination of Fossil fuels will do. See Alex Epstein’s ‘Fossil Future’ for details.
Can we stop this?
Yes, but it going to require a lot of effort to turn this ship around, and even then some of what I say is going to happen, not if but when (like the collapse of the NHS), for some of these it will be how best to mitigate the damage and lessen the impact.
If that’s something you like me to go into let me know. It will no doubt be more fun to write, and a lot less depressing.
Now, what are my bases for any of these, just what I have seen from all the media I consume and what is logically most likely to happen to the best of my current knowledge.
And you know what, I hope I am wrong! And I hope to never say I told you so.